Lagos Political Dynamics and Femi Gbajabiamila's Governorship Chances

Femi Gbajabiamila, currently the Chief of Staff to President Bola Tinubu, has been the subject of speculation regarding a potential bid for the Lagos State governorship in 2027. However, recent reports indicate that he has publicly dismissed these rumors, emphasizing that his focus remains on his current role in the presidency. At an All Progressives Congress (APC) general assembly in Surulere, Lagos, on December 29, 2024, Gbajabiamila stated, “My current job as Chief of Staff is so demanding that I can’t even finish it. I don’t have the time to be thinking about governorship,” and added, “God Almighty knows who will become the next governor.” He attributed the speculation to detractors attempting to undermine his political standing in Lagos.

Despite his denial, some sources suggest there is ongoing interest in his potential candidacy. Primate Elijah Ayodele, a prominent cleric, urged Gbajabiamila in June 2025 to "wake up" and build a grassroots base if he intends to be a leading contender for the Lagos governorship, indicating that others might suppress his ambitions if he does not act strategically. Additionally, political observers have listed Gbajabiamila among potential contenders for the 2027 race, alongside figures like Lagos State Speaker Mudashiru Obasa and Seyi Tinubu, the President’s son.

While Gbajabiamila has downplayed any governorship ambitions, the speculation persists due to his prominent political profile and history in Lagos politics. There is no definitive evidence confirming his intent to run, and his current statements suggest he is not actively pursuing the governorship. However, political dynamics can shift, and his actions in building grassroots support, as advised by Ayodele, could indicate future intentions if he chooses to engage more actively in Lagos politics.

The political dynamics surrounding the Lagos State governorship race for 2027, particularly within the All Progressives Congress (APC) and with respect to Femi Gbajabiamila’s potential ambition, are shaped by a complex interplay of power structures, influential stakeholders, and strategic considerations. Below is an exploration of these dynamics based on recent developments and broader contextual factors:

1. APC’s Dominance and Tinubu’s Influence

Historical Context

The APC has maintained a firm grip on Lagos State politics since 1999, largely due to the influence of Bola Tinubu, a former governor and current President of Nigeria. Tinubu’s political machinery, often referred to as the "Tinubu political dynasty," has been instrumental in determining gubernatorial candidates, as seen in the ousting of Akinwunmi Ambode in 2019 and the selection of Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

Tinubu’s Role in 2027

As the de facto leader of Lagos APC, Tinubu’s endorsement is widely regarded as the ultimate determinant of the party’s candidate. Posts on X suggest that Tinubu’s choice may reflect a balance of party loyalists’ views, grassroots sentiment, and public opinion, but his personal influence remains paramount.

Implications for Gbajabiamila

Femi Gbajabiamila, as Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, is a close ally, which could position him favorably if Tinubu supports his candidacy. However, Gbajabiamila’s recent public dismissal of governorship ambitions suggests he is either strategically avoiding early commitment or genuinely focused on his current role.

2. Key Contenders and Internal Party Rivalries

Potential Aspirants

Alongside Gbajabiamila, other rumored APC contenders for 2027 include:

Mudashiru Obasa, Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, who has strong grassroots connections through the Mandate Group and has not ruled out running.

Seyi Tinubu, the President’s son, whose candidacy could face resistance due to perceptions of dynasty politics.

Akinwunmi Ambode, the former governor, whose rehabilitation within the APC and infrastructure achievements make him a viable candidate.

Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat, the current Deputy Governor, who benefits from proximity to the governorship and a political pedigree.

Tokunbo Abiru, a Senator, also mentioned as a potential contender.

Internal Dynamics

The competition among these figures highlights intra-party rivalries within the APC. Gbajabiamila’s rapid rise—from Minority Whip to Speaker of the House—has sparked envy and suspicion among some party members, who may spread rumors of his ambition to undermine his influence in Lagos.

Strategic Denials

Gbajabiamila’s repeated denials of governorship ambitions (in 2021 and 2024) could be a calculated move to avoid alienating other contenders or to bide his time until Tinubu signals his preference.

3. Religious and Zoning Considerations

Religious Balance

Lagos politics often considers religious representation. After eight years of a Christian governor (Sanwo-Olu), there may be pressure to nominate a Muslim candidate in 2027, a factor that could favor Gbajabiamila, Obasa, Hamzat, or Seyi Tinubu over Ambode, who is Christian.

Zoning

While zoning is less rigid in Lagos compared to other states, there are suggestions that candidates from specific senatorial districts (e.g., Lagos East for Hamzat) may be favored to balance regional representation.

Implications for Gbajabiamila

As a Muslim from Surulere (Lagos Central), Gbajabiamila aligns with the potential religious shift, but his lack of prior executive experience in Lagos governance could be a drawback compared to Hamzat or Ambode.

4. Grassroots and Stakeholder Dynamics

Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) 

The GAC, a powerful APC body in Lagos, plays a significant role in candidate selection. Its endorsement was critical for Sanwo-Olu in 2019, and it will likely influence the 2027 race. Gbajabiamila’s alignment with Tinubu suggests he could secure GAC support, but other contenders like Obasa also have strong ties to this council.

Grassroots Mobilization

Primate Elijah Ayodele’s June 2025 statement urging Gbajabiamila to build a grassroots base indicates that his current influence may be more elite-driven than populist. Without a robust local network, his candidacy could face challenges against figures like Obasa, who controls the Mandate Group.

Public Sentiment

Lagosians prioritize socio-economic progress, and the 2023 elections showed growing opposition traction (e.g., Labour Party’s Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour). Gbajabiamila’s perceived distance from local governance could make him less appealing unless he actively engages with grassroots issues.

5. Opposition Challenges and Electoral Context

Opposition Parties

The Labour Party (LP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) pose threats to APC’s dominance, particularly after LP’s strong showing in 2023. Candidates like Rhodes-Vivour (LP) and Abdul-Azeez Adediran (PDP) are already positioning for 2027, capitalizing on youth discontent and anti-establishment sentiment.

Voter Suppression Concerns

Past elections in Lagos have been marred by allegations of voter suppression and violence, often linked to APC-backed groups. Gbajabiamila’s association with Tinubu’s camp could expose him to criticism if such tactics persist in 2027.

Implications for Gbajabiamila

As a high-profile figure, Gbajabiamila would need to navigate these challenges carefully, emphasizing governance credentials over political maneuvering to appeal to an increasingly skeptical electorate.

6. Gbajabiamila’s Strategic Positioning

Current Role

Gbajabiamila’s position as Chief of Staff is described as highly demanding, giving him a national platform but limiting his time to cultivate a Lagos base. His denials of ambition may reflect a focus on consolidating power federally before considering a state-level move.

Political Trajectory

His rapid ascent in national politics (House of Representatives member since 2003, Speaker from 2019–2023) has fueled speculation about higher ambitions, but his lack of state-level executive experience could be a hurdle.

Detractors’ Role

Gbajabiamila’s claim that rumors of his ambition stem from detractors suggests internal APC factions may view him as a threat. This could complicate his prospects unless he secures Tinubu’s unequivocal backing.

Future Moves

If Gbajabiamila does harbor governorship ambitions, he may need to follow Ayodele’s advice to build grassroots support, possibly through visible projects in Surulere or Lagos-wide initiatives, while maintaining Tinubu’s trust.

7. Broader Political Trends

APC’s National Strategy

The APC’s focus on consolidating power ahead of 2027, including wooing defectors and resolving internal crises, could influence Lagos candidate selection. Gbajabiamila’s federal role aligns him with this strategy, potentially strengthening his case.

Defection Rumors

While some opposition governors are rumored to be considering defection to APC, Lagos remains a stronghold, reducing the need for such maneuvers locally. However, this national trend underscores the fluidity of Nigerian politics, which could impact Gbajabiamila’s calculations.

Youth and Opposition Surge

The 2023 elections highlighted growing youth engagement and opposition strength in Lagos, challenging APC’s traditional dominance. Gbajabiamila or any APC candidate will need to address these dynamics to secure victory.

Lagos Political Dynamics and Femi Gbajabiamila's Governorship Chances Conclusion

The political dynamics of the 2027 Lagos governorship race are defined by Tinubu’s towering influence, intra-APC rivalries, religious and zoning considerations, and the growing challenge from opposition parties. Femi Gbajabiamila remains a speculated contender, but his public denials, lack of grassroots mobilization, and demanding federal role suggest he is not actively pursuing the governorship at this stage. However, his close ties to Tinubu and alignment with religious preferences keep him in the conversation. If he were to contest, he would need to overcome internal resistance, build a stronger local base, and navigate a competitive field shaped by strategic endorsements and public expectations. The race remains fluid, with Tinubu’s eventual choice likely to be the decisive factor.