By Lekan Yusuf
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s resignation from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on July 14, 2025, has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political landscape, but whether it marks his final exit from the party is uncertain and depends on several factors. Atiku, a founding member of the PDP and its presidential candidate in 2019 and 2023, cited “irreconcilable differences” and the party’s deviation from its foundational principles as reasons for his departure. His move follows his involvement in forming a new opposition coalition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), alongside other political heavyweights like Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi, aiming to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections.
To assess whether Atiku Abubakar’s resignation from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on July 14, 2025, is likely his final exit, and to explore the implications of his move to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, let’s dive deeper into the political dynamics, Atiku’s motivations, the PDP’s internal struggles, and the ADC’s prospects. This analysis draws on recent developments, historical context, and sentiments from X posts, while critically examining the factors that could shape Atiku’s future political trajectory.
Atiku’s Political History and Motivations
Atiku Abubakar, a seasoned political figure and former Vice President (1999–2007), has a well-documented history of party-switching, which provides crucial context for evaluating whether this exit is permanent:
Previous Defections:
Atiku has defected from the PDP three times prior to 2025. In 2006, he left for the Action Congress (AC) to pursue his presidential ambition, returning to the PDP in 2009. He defected again in 2013 to the All Progressives Congress (APC), only to return to the PDP in 2017 ahead of the 2019 elections. This pattern, as noted in posts on X (e.g., @mrlurvy: “1999: PDP, 2007: AC, 2011: PDP, 2015: APC, 2019: PDP, 2023: PDP, 2027: ADC”), underscores Atiku’s pragmatic approach, switching parties to secure presidential tickets or align with viable platforms.
Current Resignation:
Atiku’s July 14, 2025, resignation letter, addressed to the PDP chairman in Jada 1 Ward, Adamawa State, cites “irreconcilable differences” and the PDP’s deviation from its “foundational principles” of fairness, justice, and national unity. This suggests deep dissatisfaction with the PDP’s current trajectory, particularly its failure to resolve internal conflicts and present a united front against the APC.
Motivations: At 78, Atiku remains driven by his long-standing presidential ambition. His move to the ADC, where he is reportedly eyeing the presidential ticket for 2027, indicates a strategic choice to lead a new opposition coalition rather than contest within a fractured PDP. X posts, such as @Waspapping_’s claim that Atiku’s exit “isn’t a gamble, it’s a calculated move” to secure the ADC ticket ahead of competitors like Peter Obi, reinforce this view. However, his history suggests he could return to the PDP if the ADC falters or if the PDP reforms and offers a better path to his goals.
PDP’s Internal Crisis
The PDP’s ongoing internal struggles are a significant factor pushing Atiku away and reducing the likelihood of a near-term return:
Leadership Tensions:
The PDP has been plagued by factionalism, particularly between Atiku’s camp and that of Nyesom Wike, the former Rivers State governor and current FCT Minister. Wike’s influence, including his alleged alignment with the APC while remaining a PDP member, has created a power struggle. An X post by @DanielRegha highlights Wike’s dual loyalty as a source of PDP’s instability. Wike’s public statement that Atiku and others left because they couldn’t “hijack” the PDP’s leadership underscores this rift.
Defections and Weakening Structures:
Atiku’s exit follows other high-profile defections, such as Emeka Charles Kalu, a PDP chieftain from Abia State, who joined the ADC citing the party’s “self-inflicted crises.” X posts, like @FrancisAdeboye’s, suggest that “PDP structures across the nation are being absorbed by ADC,” indicating a broader exodus of PDP loyalists to the ADC. This erosion of the PDP’s base, particularly in Atiku’s North-East stronghold, weakens its appeal as a viable platform for his ambitions.
Bode George’s Plea:
Former PDP Deputy National Chairman Bode George urged Atiku and other defectors, including former Senate President David Mark (interim ADC chairman), to return, arguing that the PDP’s internal issues have been resolved. However, George’s optimism may be overstated, as the PDP’s ability to unify and regain its opposition strength remains uncertain, especially with Wike’s ongoing influence.
ADC Coalition: Prospects and Challenges
The ADC’s emergence as the chosen platform for a new opposition coalition, led by Atiku, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and others, is central to whether Atiku’s exit from the PDP is final. Let’s examine its prospects:
Coalition Composition:
The ADC coalition includes heavyweights from multiple parties: Peter Obi (Labour Party), El-Rufai and Amaechi (formerly APC), and PDP defectors like Sule Lamido, Uche Secondus, and Aminu Tambuwal. This diverse group aims to consolidate opposition forces to challenge the APC in 2027. Atiku’s role as a “champion” of this coalition, as noted by Daily Trust, suggests he holds significant influence, potentially securing the presidential ticket.
Strengths:
The ADC’s appeal lies in its attempt to unite opposition figures across regional and ideological lines. Atiku’s financial resources and political network, particularly in the North, combined with Obi’s popularity in the South-East and Amaechi’s South-South influence, could create a formidable challenge to the APC. Political watchers, as cited by AIT, view the ADC as a “potent opposition” to the APC. X posts, such as @Letter_to_Jack’s, suggest Atiku’s move to the ADC signals confidence in securing the 2027 ticket, indicating a strategic consolidation of power.
Challenges: The ADC faces significant hurdles:
Internal Competition:
The coalition’s diverse membership could lead to clashes over the presidential ticket. Peter Obi, with his strong grassroots support, is a potential rival to Atiku. X posts speculate on a “deal sealed behind closed doors” for Atiku’s candidacy, but Obi’s ambitions could complicate this.
Structural Weakness: The ADC lacks the PDP’s established national structure. Building a new party capable of challenging the APC in two years is a daunting task, especially given Nigeria’s history of coalition failures (e.g., the 2011 PDP defectors’ alliance cited by Jacob Mark).
Skepticism from PDP Loyalists:
Former PDP legal adviser Jacob Mark dismissed Atiku and other defectors as “window shoppers” who may return if their coalition fails, reflecting skepticism about the ADC’s longevity. Kebbi Governor Nasir Idris similarly downplayed the defection of Abubakar Malami to the ADC, calling it “politically irrelevant.”
Is This Atiku’s Final Exit?
Several factors suggest this may not be Atiku’s final exit from the PDP:
Historical Precedent:
Atiku’s repeated returns to the PDP after defections (2009, 2017) indicate a pattern of strategic retreats. If the ADC fails to gain traction or if internal disputes (e.g., over the presidential ticket) fracture the coalition, Atiku could return to a reformed PDP, especially if it resolves its leadership crises.
PDP’s Potential Recovery:
Despite its current turmoil, the PDP remains Nigeria’s most established opposition party. If figures like Bode George succeed in stabilizing the party, as he claims, Atiku might see it as a viable platform again, particularly if the ADC struggles to build a national presence.
Atiku’s Pragmatism:
Atiku’s political career is marked by adaptability. An X post by @mrlurvy frames his party switches as a relentless pursuit of the “Villa keys,” suggesting that his loyalty lies with his presidential ambition, not any single party. If the ADC falters or the PDP offers a better shot at the presidency, Atiku’s history suggests he could pivot back.
However, factors supporting a permanent exit include:
Irreconcilable Differences:
Atiku’s resignation letter emphasizes the PDP’s departure from its founding ideals, a sentiment echoed in his public statements. The ongoing Wike-Atiku feud and the PDP’s failure to discipline Wike for his APC affiliations may have burned bridges.
ADC’s Strategic Appeal:
Atiku’s leadership in forming the ADC coalition, as noted in multiple sources, suggests a long-term commitment to this new platform. His reported front-runner status for the ADC’s 2027 ticket and the coalition’s inclusion of high-profile figures like Obi and El-Rufai indicate a serious investment in its success.
Timing and Age: At 78, Atiku may view 2027 as his final shot at the presidency. Returning to a weakened PDP, which failed him in 2019 and 2023, may seem less appealing than leading a new coalition tailored to his vision.
Broader Political Implications
PDP’s Survival:
Atiku’s exit, coupled with other defections, could critically weaken the PDP, especially in the North-East, where Atiku commands significant influence. X posts like @FrancisAdeboye’s suggest the PDP’s “political relevance” is waning as its structures are absorbed by the ADC. The PDP’s ability to recover depends on resolving its internal conflicts and retaining its base.
ADC’s Viability:
The ADC’s success hinges on its ability to unify its diverse coalition and build a national structure. While it has attracted prominent figures, historical precedents of failed coalitions (e.g., the 2011 PDP defectors’ alliance) and skepticism from figures like Jacob Mark cast doubt on its staying power.
2027 Election Dynamics:
Atiku’s move strengthens the opposition’s fragmentation, potentially splitting the anti-APC vote between the PDP, ADC, and Labour Party. However, if the ADC consolidates opposition support, it could pose a significant challenge to the APC, especially if Atiku or Obi emerges as a unifying candidate.
Conclusion
Atiku’s resignation from the PDP is unlikely to be his final exit, given his history of strategic party switches and the fluid nature of Nigerian politics. His current commitment to the ADC reflects a calculated bid for the 2027 presidency, leveraging a coalition of opposition heavyweights. However, the ADC’s success is uncertain due to internal competition, structural challenges, and Nigeria’s history of coalition failures. If the ADC falters or the PDP reforms, Atiku’s pragmatic track record suggests he could return. For now, his focus on the ADC and the 2027 elections indicates a serious, but not necessarily permanent, shift. The coming months, particularly the ADC’s ability to unify and the PDP’s response to its crisis, will clarify whether Atiku’s exit is truly his last.
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