USA VS CHINA: The Untold Build-up to World War IV

 By Idowu Ephraim Faleye 

The world is not at peace, and everyone can feel it. From the corners of Africa to the deserts of the Middle East, across the oceans and into the powerful halls of Washington and Beijing, something is shifting. It’s in the headlines, the price of fuel, the sound of fighter jets, the tone of world leaders, and the tension you can almost touch in the air. What we are seeing today is no longer just isolated regional fights or trade disputes. The world is being pulled in different directions by two major powers—the United States and China—and their quiet battle for control is setting the stage for something much bigger, something no one wants to admit out loud: the beginning of a new world war.

It didn’t start with bombs or tanks. It started with tariffs and tweets. Back in 2018, when the United States imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, many thought it was just an economic strategy. But it was more than that. It was the spark that ignited a deeper rivalry. China responded with its own tariffs, and what followed was a back-and-forth trade war. Over time, the battle lines extended into technology, with bans on Huawei, restrictions on TikTok, and a scramble for control over microchips and artificial intelligence. What started as an economic fight began to take the shape of something much more serious—a global power struggle between two giants.

As the tension between these two countries grew, their influence spread beyond trade and technology into military and political alliances. And this is where it gets dangerous. Because now, the rivalry is no longer just about who makes better phones or who leads the chip industry. It's about who controls the future. And this fight is being carried into other regions, especially the Middle East, where old wounds are still bleeding and new conflicts are waiting to explode.

In recent months, the United States has supplied Israel with high-grade military support. This includes advanced weapons like bunker-busting bombs, precision-guided missiles, and aerial refueling tankers that allow Israeli jets to fly deeper and strike harder. The U.S. has also supported Israel with satellite intelligence and surveillance data, helping to strengthen Israel’s ability to strike strategic Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities hidden deep underground. This kind of support is not casual. It’s deliberate, strategic, and meant to tilt the balance of power in favor of Israel.

Meanwhile, China is doing something equally bold but quieter. After a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in June 2025, Iran received shipments of the HQ-9B long-range surface-to-air missile systems from China. These missile systems are designed to track and shoot down incoming aircraft, drones, and even stealth jets. Although they haven’t been used in active combat yet, Chinese military exercises have tested these systems against stealth and electronic warfare scenarios. Iran paid for these weapons not with cash but with oil—circumventing U.S. sanctions through a well-planned barter system. This isn't just business. It's military positioning, and it’s clear that China is preparing Iran for something more than defense.

These developments are not isolated. When you look at the big picture, you start to see the signs of a much deeper game being played. On one side, the U.S. is reinforcing its long-time allies like Israel, Japan, South Korea, and NATO members. On the other side, China is strengthening its partnerships with Iran, Russia, North Korea, and other countries that have reasons to resist the Western order. These alliances are being built not just with words and agreements, but with weapons, intelligence sharing, economic deals, and coordinated strategies.

Many people say, “There can’t be a world war now. The world is too connected.” But that’s the very thing that makes the risk more real. Because in today’s world, conflict is not always declared. It can unfold through cyberattacks, economic pressure, proxy wars, and silent sabotage. Countries don’t need to formally declare war to start fighting. They just need to choose sides, arm their partners, and let the damage begin elsewhere.

In the Middle East, Israel and Iran are no longer just enemies fighting over land and ideology. They have become extensions of U.S. and Chinese interests, testing weapons, strategies, and responses that serve the goals of the superpowers behind them. When Iran launches drones at Israeli cities, and Israel responds with targeted airstrikes on nuclear facilities, it's not just about local security. It’s about two global powers flexing their muscles through others.

What’s frightening is that these two world powers—America and China—are not just competing. They are dragging the rest of the world along. Every nation, big or small, is being pulled into this struggle. Countries that rely on U.S. security are expected to support American policies, while those benefiting from Chinese infrastructure loans, trade deals, and military support are expected to return the favor when it counts. Some countries try to remain neutral, but neutrality becomes harder when your survival depends on either Beijing’s generosity or Washington’s protection.

Africa, for instance, is witnessing both sides competing for influence. While the U.S. offers military training, humanitarian aid, and counterterrorism support, China is building railways, ports, and digital networks in return for access to resources and markets. In Latin America, Chinese investments in mining and technology are challenging decades of U.S. influence. In Southeast Asia, countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are caught between Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and American promises of defense support. In Eastern Europe, the Russia-Ukraine war has become a testing ground for U.S. weapons and NATO resolve, while China silently observes and strengthens its bonds with Moscow.

This is how a global war begins—not with nuclear blasts, but with competition across multiple fronts. Cyberwarfare is already here. Governments are hacking each other, stealing data, attacking power grids, and influencing elections. Trade wars have become a tool of punishment and control. Tech battles over 5G, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence are turning into full-blown arms races. And now, military alliances and arms transfers are setting the ground for real, physical confrontations in places like the Middle East, Taiwan Strait, and even Africa.

The U.S. and China are not just the most powerful countries in the world—they are also the most influential. Every move they make sends ripples across the globe. If the U.S. imposes sanctions on a nation, it can cripple its economy. If China restricts rare-earth mineral exports, industries around the world will suffer. If either of them cuts diplomatic ties or mobilizes its military, other countries are forced to choose sides. This influence is both a strength and a burden, because it means that a misstep by either power could ignite a crisis far beyond their borders.

At this point, the world is standing on a dangerous edge. The tension is thick, and the rivalry between the U.S. and China is no longer hidden in boardrooms or diplomatic cables. It is being tested in the skies over Israel, in the deserts of Iran, in the waters of the Pacific, and in the digital wires that connect us all. The world does not want another global war. But the world may not have a choice if the two leading powers continue to arm their allies, provoke each other, and push the limits of confrontation without restraint.

The warning signs are everywhere. Global institutions that were once designed to prevent world wars—like the United Nations—are losing relevance. Diplomacy is being replaced with threats. Cooperation is being drowned out by suspicion. And while the leaders of the world speak of peace, their actions are preparing for war.

If a fourth world war does break out, it may not be declared in the traditional sense. There may be no formal alliances or written battle plans. But the chaos, the destruction, and the loss will be just as real—if not worse—because this time, the war will be fought on multiple fronts, with weapons that didn’t exist before, and in ways that may not even look like war until it is too late.

This is the world we now live in. A world where two powers are dragging the rest of us into a silent battlefield. And the rest of us must decide: will we watch as the storm builds, or will we raise our voices before it becomes too loud to silence?

Because if we don’t recognize the signs now—if we don’t stop the seeds of conflict from being watered with weapons and ambition—we might find ourselves waking up one morning not to the outbreak of a fourth world war, but to the haunting truth that it had already begun long before we realized.

Let us not wait until the sound of sirens, bombs, and burning cities wakes us up from our silence. Let the world’s leaders, its people, and its conscience rise before it is too late. History has warned us. The signs are clear. The tension is rising. And if we do not act with wisdom and restraint, we may soon find that the fourth world war was not just imminent—it was inevitable.

Idowu Ephraim Faleye writes from Ado-Ekiti +2348132100608